Analysts at ANZ are expecting that NZ’s Q3 GDP likely expanded by 0.5% q/q, which would see annual growth moderate 0.1%pts to 2.7%.
Key Quotes
“Underpinning this is an element of payback from Q2’s strong print, where a number of temporary factors provided a boost.”
“That said, relatively stable underlying momentum in the economy should put a floor under Q3’s deceleration.”
“All up, we suspect growth will continue to muddle along at an annual pace of 2 ½-3%, which we see as slightly below trend. In that environment, it will be a struggle for core inflation to lift sustainably to the RBNZ’s 2% target, suggesting the OCR will remain on hold for some time yet. And if downside risks to the outlook materialise, the next move could well be a cut.”
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