Gold nears 200-day MA for the first time since June 14

• Gold neared the critical 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time since June 14.
• The long-term MA hurdle could be scaled convincingly if the Fed signals just one rate hike in 2019.

Gold is within a striking distance from the 200-day MA line of $1,252.

At press time, the yellow metal is changing hands at $1,250, having clocked a session high of $1,251 earlier today. Notably, the long-term MA hurdle was last put to test on June 14. Back then, the MA line was located at $1,306.

Focus on Fed

The US central bank is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points – a move priced in by investors – and sound cautious. More importantly, markets are pricing in just one rate hike for 2019.

The Fed, however, may sound less dovish-than-expected by removing just one rate hike from the September forecast of three rate hikes in 2019. In that case, the American dollar could pick up a strong bid, pushing the yellow metal lower.

The zero-yielding safe-haven metal could beat the 200-day MA line if the Fed matches market expectations by signaling just one rate hike in 2019. Also, gold may rise sharply if the forward guidance drops hints of a rate pause in 2019.

Gold Technical Levels