According to survey results from Bloomberg, polled economists are expecting that US job growth in 2018 will be capped off by a less-than-average gain for December. Median estimates from the Bloomberg polling suggest the US added 184 thousand jobs for December, an improvement over November’s 155 thousand addition, but still below the year’s average of 206 thousand.
Key forecast quotes
ING Groep – 165,000 jobs, 3.7 percent unemployment rate, 3.1 percent annual wage growth.
Wells Fargo – 165,000 jobs, 3.7 percent unemployment, 3 percent annual wage growth.
Morgan Stanley – 167,000 jobs, 3.7 percent unemployment, 3.1 percent annual wage growth.
Citigroup – 173,000 jobs, 3.7 percent unemployment, 3 percent annual wage growth.
Barclays – 185,000 jobs, 3.6 percent unemployment, 3 percent annual wage gain.
Goldman Sachs – 195,000 jobs, 3.7 percent unemployment, 3 percent annual wage growth.
Amherst Pierpont – 200,000 jobs, 3.6 percent unemployment, 3 percent annual wage growth.
Bloomberg Economics – 210,000 jobs, 3.6 percent unemployment, 3 percent annual wage growth.
“A substantial surprise in the jobs number, either higher or lower, would likely elicit a significant market reaction,” economist Veronica Clark said in a note. “An upside surprise could increase market expectations for rate hikes in 2019, while a downside surprise could lead markets to price a higher probability that exceptional U.S. growth is not immune from declining equity prices and slowing global growth.” – Bloomberg
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