EUR/USD: Focus on German CPI and Fed minutes

• EUR/USD trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market last week.
• A weaker-than-expected German CPI would validate ECB’s recent dovish turn.
• The US central bank is expected to keep rates and confirm that it is on a wait and watch mode.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1438, having clocked a two-week high of 1.1450 yesterday.

On Friday, the currency pair witnessed a biggest single-day rise since Sept. 20, neutralizing the bearish view put forward by the downside break of the trendline rising from the November lows on the previous day. Essentially, the pair trapped the bears on the wrong side of the market.

The positive turnaround, however, could be short-lived if the German consumer price index misses estimates, validating the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent dovish turn. Last week, the central bank downgraded assessment on the economy, leaving the forward guidance wording unchanged.  

The data, due for release at 13:00 GMT, is expected to show that the cost of living rose 1.6 percent year-on-year in January; having jumped 1.7 percent in December.  

Meanwhile, the FOMC is expected to keep rates unchanged and confirm the message delivered by the recent round of Fed speakers – the central bank has time to sit back and review rate hikes and its impact on the economy.

The dollar, however, could pick up a strong bid, pushing the EUR/USD lower if Fed’s Powell downplays recent reports that the central bank is planning to end the quantitative tightening program sooner-than-expected.

EUR/USD Technical Levels