USD/INR jumped 2% in January, focus on India’s interim budget

• The rupee depreciated by 2 percent last month, possibly due to fiscal concerns.  

USD/INR closed yesterday at 70.95, representing a 2 percent monthly gain.  

The Indian rupee was one of the worst major performing Asian currencies last month, possibly due to fiscal concerns and oil rally.  

The pair is likely to open on a flat note today on caution ahead of India’s interim budget. The consensus in the market is that the Indian unit would lose ground if the government gives a populist budget.  Also, gains if any, on the back of a fiscally prudent budget could be erased on Monday if the US wage growth numbers, due today at 13:30 GMT, blow past expectations.  

Technically speaking, the pair has charted a double top like pattern near 71.40 in the last two weeks. Put simply, charts favor a drop to 70.50. A convincing break above that level is needed to revive the bullish bias.  

Technical Levels