Budget anxiety keeps ZAR weak- TDS

The analysts at TS Securities pointed out on the budget anxiety linked with negative consequences for ZAR:
       

• “Today’s National Budget presentation will unveil financial support measures for Eskom and determine how USDZAR trades in the coming days.”
• “We see a 44% probability that Moody’s decides to change South Africa’s outlook to negative on 29 March, but also set at 20% the probability of an immediate downgrade without outlook change. Cumulatively, a negative rating action by end of March is 64%.”
• “By November, we still see South Africa’s chances to avoid a downgrade to junk by Moody’s at 55%. This may not be enough to spare additional pain to ZAR unless the budget comes in very conservative today.”