Overview of the Australian jobs report
The Australian Bureau of Statistics is up for releasing monthly jobs report during early Asian markets on Thursday. The January month employment change and unemployment rate details will be a key to watch in the 00:30 GMT update.
Analysts at Westpact say:
For the Jan data due 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK, the median forecast is a familiar +15k. Westpac is in line with consensus given that such an outcome would be consistent with annual jobs growth of just over 2%. We see the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.0%, on the assumption that the participation rate holds at 65.6%. AUD is more likely to respond to a downside than an upside surprise.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
Considering latest shift in the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) outlook and softer than expected wage price index, the additional downside in the employment change might validate the bears’ rate cut bias and provide damages to the Australian Dollar (AUD). However, a surprise improvement in the employment change or favorable print of the unemployment rate could escalate the Aussie recovery.
On the technical front, AUD/USD follows short-term ascending trend-channel with 0.7185 acting as resistance and 0.7110 being the formation support. While an upside break of 0.7185 signals the pair’s rise to 0.7200 and 0.7230, pullback moves can avail 0.7135 as an intermediate halt before visiting 0.7110 and 0.7080 supports.
Key notes
AUD/USD: All eyes on commodities, FOMC minutes, Aussie jobs and critical levels in US stocks
AUD/USD eases from highs to 0.7170 as USD rebounds on FOMC minutes
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Correcting from ascending trend-channel resistance, downside seems limited
About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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