The British pound enjoyed a rally thanks to the rising prospects of a Brexit delay. What’s next?
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
Societe Generale Research discusses the tactical views for GBP/USD and EUR/USD in the near-term.
“The wind is blowing in favor of a trade deal between the US and China, and in favor, at the moment, of the UK achieving a ‘soft Brexit’ which is probably mostly priced in for now. It’s also moving in favor of further action by the ECB in the form of another TLTRO at some point in the coming months. Though it must be clear to everyone except the most wooden-headed policy-maker that Europe’s illness needs fiscal, not monetary medicine,” SocGen notes.
In practical terms, we expect we’ll see GBP continue to find support and the dollar remained on the back foot against most currencies, including NOK, SEK, and AUD, but perhaps not including the yen and euro for now. Friday’s Canadian GDP data gave the CAD a lick in the teeth, too. They were just plain awful. EUR/USD, of course, isn’t really going anywhere much,” SocGen adds.
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