- USD/JPY pops above the 61.8% Fibo with eyes set on the 200-DMA and 111.50 target where prices dropped a big figure on the 20th March.
- USD/JPY is currently trading at 111.02, between a low of 110.87 and 111.04.
News that U.S., China held ‘candid and constructive’ trade talks last week, risk sentiment has improved and the yen has sold off, driving the price back onto the 111 handle vs the greenback. Also, China’s data from over the weekend has given risk an additional boost at the start of the month – More here.
Meanwhile, the day ahead will offer more data from China and focus will be on the Chinese staock market as traders get set for a potentially busy schedule for the week ahead. With a focus on U.S data, the week will start off with ISM Manufacturing (Mar) – A minor gain in ISM index is likely the best bulls can hope for considering the regional Fed surveys suggest manufacturing activity is holding up, in stark contrast to weak global manufacturing PMIs which perhaps increases the chance of a bearish surprise.
Then, the main event for the week will come on the 5th Apr in the Nonfarm Payrolls and Jobs Report (Mar) – after last months disappointing headline number, traders are looking for a more sustainable 165k print while the unemployment rate is likely to keep at a steady 3.8%. If wages are on the rise, the dollar should get a boost.
USD/JPY levels
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that, according to the 4 hours chart, the pair offers a neutral-to-positive stance, as technical indicators consolidate within positive levels while the price develops above a bullish 20 SMA. “In this last timeframe, the 100 and 200 SMA converge at around 111.00 and with the shortest about to cross below the larger one, reinforcing the 111.00/10 region as resistance. The 61.8% of March slide comes at 111.25, with the upward potential clearer once above this last.”
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