- Failing to recover past the 1300 price tag as being the 50% reversion target of the latest sell-off, the price has been consolidating since dropping out of the rising channel and below 1300 at the end of last month, taking out the 23.6% Fibos of the late Feb highs and early March swing lows.
- The price has been testing the support of the 29th March lows and the rising support from Nov’s bull trend.
- However, daily stochastics are oversold and bulls look to the 1300’s again if 1285 holds.
- However, failure to though 1307 and the 38.2% Fibo confluence of Feb support and resistances, the downside will remain compelling, with a target set at 1275 (38.2% fibo retracement of the Aug 2018-Feb swing lows and highs) and below where the 200-DMA will come into play, (1250/50% Fibo area).
- However, it could be prudent to wait for a test of 1280 following the initial break of trendline support and watch for pullbacks from there and/or from 1275 considering the level of protection bulls might wish to apply at this critical 38.2% Fibo juncture with confluence of Jan lows, for it is at these levels that the bulls capitulated back in June 2018 to 1240 and then all the way to Aug lows at 1160.
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