The AUD/USD pair may range trade around 0.70 and 0.74 according to analysts at CitiBank. They forecast AUD/USD at 0.72 in 0-3M and at 0.74 in a 6-12M.
Key Quotes:
“We believe calls for the RBA to cut the cash rate seem premature. In addition, Chinese reflation/ credit creation should start to benefit Australian data momentum. a further escalation of trade tensions looks increasingly unlikely in the near term, as such risk assets and high beta currencies may trade robustly.”
“AUD/USD continued to restrain by 200MA since April 2018. Currently 200MA stayed at 0.7205. A break above may accelerate the uptrend. The pair may range trade between 0.7003-0.7394 in short term.”
“US economy may not slow down significantly this year. We expect US economy may rebound in 2Q after a slow down in 1Q, which may underpin USD and restrain AUD. The RBA may not hike rates until end-2020. A late rate hike may be negative for AUD.”
“Asian PMI data showed broad based rebound in manufacturing activity in March. As Asian economies are Australia’s major trading partners, rising Asian PMI may benefit AUD. In our view, it is premature to expect rate cuts by the RBA. The central bank may continue to keep the interest rate unchanged, which may support AUD.”
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