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Canada: Strong core inflation in 2019 – NBF

The Consumer Price Index in Canada rose 2.0% in April from a year ago. Matthieu Arseneau, an analyst at the National Bank of Canada, explains that underlying inflation took a breather in April.  

Key Quotes:

“In seasonally adjusted terms, CPI was up 0.3% m/m with rises in shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, healthcare and alcohol/tobacco/cannabis while food and recreation were flat.”

“Headline CPI rose significantly for a third consecutive month as gasoline prices rose 10% in April. From January to April, the 25% rise in gasoline prices contributed to the 6 ticks jump in headline annual inflation now standing at slightly above the midpoint target of the central bank. Underlying inflation took a breather in April based on our replication of the Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures showing flat prints on the month.”

“It is worth noting that this follows strong rises in the first three months of the year. As a result, CPI-Trim and CPI-median are rising at an annualized clip of 2.2% and 2.3% respectively on a year-to-date basis. That is the strongest pace of growth in the current expansion.”

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