According to analysts at Danske Bank, even as the EU elections saw shrinking support for established parties in many countries, the influence of Eurosceptic groups in terms of policy-making will remain limited with a vote share of 23% (from 20.6% previously).
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“Losses for the Social Democrats and Conservatives – which lost their absolute majority for the first time since 1979 – were amply offset by gains for the Greens and Liberals, meaning that overall sentiment in parliament will remain pro-EU.”
“Still, in France, President Macron’s party En Marche lost the race against the far right Rassemblement National, calling into doubt his grand plans for domestic reforms and further EU integration. Similarly, in Germany, critical voices in the grand coalition are getting louder after another heavy defeat for the SPD party.”
“In Italy, despite a strong result with 33.6% of the votes, Lega leader Salvini is mulling over changes to the governing coalition with Five Star or the possibility of a snap vote. However, in light of the fractious state of the two coalition partners, the risk of an election in H2 19 continues to linger in our view, especially if another budget row with Brussels breaks out in the autumn.”
“While national governments will digest the repercussions of the election results in the coming days, the focus in Brussels reverts to coalition building.”
“The EU heads of state will come together in Brussels on Tuesday, 28 May to discuss the outcome of the vote and start the nomination process for a range of top EU positions. If the political process is smooth, the election of a new Commission president could already occur in July, but in light of the increased fragmentation of the political centre, a decision in September or October seems more likely in our view.”
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