Robert Carnell, chief economist at ING, suggests that they are alone amongst the consensus of forecasters looking for a rate cut from the Bank of Korea (BoK) tomorrow.
Key Quotes
“The consensus view is that the Bank of Korea will leave rates unchanged at the meeting, but show their leaning towards a cut at the next meeting (18 July) by having someone dissent from the no-change decision. This, the argument goes, will result in less shock to markets, less depreciation of the KRW and less of a chance of capital flight.”
“The economic backdrop would already clearly benefit from a rate cut, or more likely, a series of rate cuts. And if it is currently clear that this is the case, then any delay will only reduce the impact of any cuts when they do come, and increase the need for more easing in total.”
“On the remote chance that we end up getting this call right, and we confess, this is vanishingly small.”
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