Analysts at National Bank of Canada show the most relevant economic indicators to be released in the US next week, among them, the official employment report.
Key Quotes:
“The most important piece of news will be May’s non-farm payrolls. Jobless claims continued to hover near a 50- year trough in the month, pointing to a very low rate of layoffs. Hiring, on the other hand, may have eased from the prior month’s healthy pace judging from Markit’s flash composite PMI report which showed private sector employment advancing at the weakest pace in just over two years. Accordingly, we’re calling for a deceleration in employment creation, with just a +175K print. The unemployment rate, for its part, may stay put at 3.6% if, as we believe, the household survey shows a modest increase in employment.
“Still in May, the ISM manufacturing index could have decreased slightly, in synch with a declining Markit manufacturing PMI during the month. Several indicators for April will also be released this week including wholesale sales, consumer credit, construction spending and the trade balance.”
“A few Fed officials are scheduled to give speeches, notably Jerome Powell (Tuesday), Thomas Barkin (Monday), James Bullard (Monday), Richard Clarida (Wednesday) and John Williams (Thursday). Finally, the most recent iteration of the Fed’s Beige Book will come out on Wednesday.”
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