According to Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, Germany’s first industrial data for the second quarter keeps the hope of a gradual industrial recovery alive as industrial orders were up by 0.3% MoM in April, increasing for the second month in a row from an upwardly revised 0.8% MoM in March.
Key Quotes
“On the year, industrial orders were down by 5.3%, from -5.9% YoY in March. Excluding bulk orders, new orders were even up by 2.1% MoM. This is some welcome relief for German industry.”
“German industry is still suffering from global uncertainty on the back of trade conflicts. Since last summer foreign orders have dropped by a monthly average of 0.6%. At the same time, however, domestic demand has also weakened, particularly since the start of the year. While domestic new orders remained stable in the second half of 2018, they collapsed in the first quarter, dropping by a total of 7% between January and March. Today’s strong numbers only marginally offset the losses of the first months.”
“All of this means that while today’s industrial order data is defintely good news and gives reason for moderate optimism, it will still take a while before industry returns as a powerful growth engine for the entire German economy.”
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