Ulrich Leuchtmann, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that we have more EURUSD negative factors to consider and have had to adjust their EUR/USD forecast to the downside, in particular until year-end 2019.
Key Quotes
“We nonetheless continue to expect a rise in EUR/USD levels – but now mainly from 2020 onwards.”
“Why do we remain optimistic for EUR/USD? The most convincing reason is the Fed’s monetary policy – and that will remain the case. Its about-turn is likely to make the high USD valuation seem increasingly questionable. And in this context it is not as decisive whether the Fed will cut its key rate one, two or three times. The fact that the greenback’s rate advantage will tend to diminish is likely to be the dominating factor for the EUR/USD exchange rate.”
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