US: Key focus on core Retail Sales – Scotiabank

The Scotiabank analysts offer a sneak peek into what to expect from Friday’s US retail sales report due on the cards at 1230 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“Cooler wage growth, soft job growth and soft hours worked should combine to translate into weak income gains for the month of May. In addition to potentially denting confidence, that might come to bear upon retail sales.  

The catch is that we might not see it as clearly in headline retail sales that should benefit from a 5 ½% m/m jump in auto sales last month to an estimated 17.3 million vehicles sold at an annualized rate.  

Gas prices, however, may hold back headline sales somewhat.  

The key will be to focus upon core retail sales after stripping out autos and gasoline and whether they rebound from the prior month’s weakness that itself followed a strong month of March.”