AUD/USD technical analysis: Bounces up from 38.2% Fib, eyes RBA

• AUD/USD has bounced up from key Fib support at 0.6957.  
• The gains could be erased if RBA reinforces aggressive rate cuts expectations.

AUD/USD is flashing 0.20 percent gains on the day at press time, having bounced up from key support earlier today.  

The currency pair found bids near 0.6957 (38.2% Fib R of 0.6832/0.7034) three hours ago and is now trading at 0.6977, still down 58 pips from Monday’s high of 0.7035.  

The Australian currency has picked up a bid ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to a new record low of 1.00%. With the move priced in, the focus will be on the RBA’s short statement and Governor’s Lowe speech at 09:30 GMT.  

The AUD will likely come under pressure if Lowe signals more than one follow-up rate cut. The currency, however, will likely see a “buy the fact” surge if Lowe cut rates and downplays the need for further rate cuts.  

Daily chart

Trend: Bullish

Pivot points