Analysts at BNP Paribas, forecast EUR/USD at 1.16 for Q3 and at 1.20 in Q4.
Key Quotes:
“In the US, we expect the Fed to cut rates twice in the second semester in reaction to a slowing economy, subdued inflation and heightened uncertainty. Bond markets are already pricing in rate cuts, which is why we expect that the decline of the 10 year treasury yield will only be moderate.”
“The combination of slower growth and subdued core inflation leads us to expect that ECB official rates will remain unchanged this year and next. 10 year Bund yields are expected to rise only marginally to 0.00% by the end of this year. We forecast a yield of 0.15% by the end of 2020.”
“We expect the euro to strengthen versus the dollar considering that the latter is expensive on valuation grounds and that the Fed will ease its policy.”
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