ECB likely to keep rates on hold – TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, the ECB should keep rates on hold but alter its guidance.

Key Quotes

“The odds of a dovishly more proactive ECB look twice as high as those of a hawkish disappointment.”

“The press conference is key to the ECB’s view on the rate floor, potential QE, low inflation expectations, and reinforcing a “symmetric” inflation target.”

“FX: With our base case fully priced and EUR weak, we see some scope upside if Draghi delivers as expected. Dovish risks prevail, which could send EURUSD lower into fresh ranges. Next week’s FOMC may constrain follow-through.”