When everybody on the floor is aware of The Guardian’s news claiming the European Union’s (EU) readiness to grant a three-month Brexit extension to the United Kingdom (UK), eyes are on the Parliamentary voting on Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s proposal for a snap election on December 12, 2020. Rabobank is out with its own analysis stating that there is a greater likelihood of the UK PM failing to get his December election motion pass through the Parliament.
Key quotes
“Will the EU grant the UK an extension until end-January 2020, or a more flexible date, or will France veto that and insist on a very short extension? Almost certainly they will insist that the newly reopened Withdrawal Agreement is this time firmly shut – so if the British Parliament then decides to merrily reopen it from its end and unilaterally start ramming amendments into it, it will not be doing so with EU approval.”
“As such, and just as pertinently, will PM BoJo get his December election or not? The greater likelihood is not, as Labour appears to be desperate for an election – just not now – although the Lib Dems may be prepared to allow one given they see this as a way to prevent any further movement towards Brexit in the short term. (Though what do they think the election campaign will be about? The price of cheese?).”
“Note that the latest opinion poll for the Observer has the Tories on 40% (+3 on the week), Labour unchanged on 24%, and the Lib Dems on 15% (-1), with the Brexit Party on 10% (-2).”
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