NZD/USD retains upward momentum and has potential to test 0.6435 and then 0.6500 during the week ahead, writes Imre Speizer – Head of NZ Strategy at Westpac.
Key Quotes:
Economic momentum has been positive recently. Today’s update on business confidence was mixed – still weak but showing signs of bottoming.
The highlight of next week’s NZ calendar is the Q3 labour data. Unemployment should rebound from Q2’s abnormally low 3.9%, while average hourly earnings should maintain a solid 1.0% quarterly pace.
In response to the improved NZ data pulse, markets have significantly pared the chances of a 13 Nov rate cut, from around 115% three weeks ago to 55% currently. Westpac economists have shifted the forecast November OCR cut to
February.
Multi-month, we remain bearish, targeting 0.6200 by January. We expect the NZD/USD to be weighed down by a stronger USD which should continue to benefit from trade wars and global risks.
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