- EUR/USD keeps the familiar range on EMU data.
- EMU advanced Core CPI expected at 1.1% YoY in October.
- EMU flash GDP seen expanding 1.1% YoY in Q3.
EUR/USD keeps the solid pace in the 1.1170 region on Thursday following key releases in Euroland.
EUR/USD stays bid on data
The upside momentum in the pair remains well and sound so far today after advanced inflation figures in Euroland showed headline consumer prices are expected to raise at an annualized 0.7% (from 0.8%) while Core prices are seen gaining 1.1% (from 1.0%).
In addition, flash GDP figures see the economy in the bloc expanding 1.1% on a yearly basis during the July-September period (from 1.2%).
In the meantime, the persistent weakness around the Greenback continues to sustain the up move in the pair while renewed trade concerns appear to have emerged recently after Chinese officials remain skeptical on the long term trade deal with the US (under the Trump administration).
What to look for around EUR
EUR has managed to return to the upper bound of the monthly range, always on the back of unabated selling pressure in the buck. Despite the October rally in spot has been exclusively sponsored by weakness in the Dollar, the outlook in Euroland remains fragile and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the medium term at least. In addition, the possibility that the German economy could slip into recession in Q3 remains a palpable risk for the outlook and is expected to weigh on EUR in the short/medium term horizon.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.19% at 1.1171 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21) seconded by 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1197 (200-day SMA). On the downside, a breakdown of 1.1072 (low Oct.25) would target 1.1042 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.0925 (low Sep.3).
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