- AUD/JPY refrains from portraying US-China trade optimism.
- Trump’s absence at the ASEAN summit, Japan’s off seem to have caught the seller’s eye.
- Australia’s ANZ Job advertisement, Retail Sales and TD Securities Inflation will be the next to watch.
Although trade positive headlines recently propelled AUD/JPY, the quote lacks the strength to extend the recovery as it pulls back to 74.80 during early Monday’s Asian session.
Not only comments from the US and Chinese diplomats that suggested the likelihood of phase one deal being signed soon, the United States (US) Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’ positive statements concerning the auto tariffs on Europe, Japan and Korea also portray overall trade positive sentiment.
As a result, the US 10-year treasury yields recover some of its latest losses to 1.71% while S&P 500 Futures also stood carries 0.14% gains by the press time.
Even so, the pair is under pressure and the reason could be the US President Donald Trump’s second consecutive absence at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Thailand. Adding to the arguments could be the absence of Japanese traders due to the Culture Day holiday and a lack of major details.
Traders will now look forward to Australia’s October month ANZ Job Advertisements and Retail Sales numbers for September ahead of TD Securities Inflation data for October. Forecasts suggest ANZ employment data register -2.9% mark versus +0.3% prior while seasonally adjusted (s.a.) Retail Sales could soften to 0.2% MoM versus 0.4% earlier readouts. Further, the TD Securities Inflation gauge rose to 1.5% and 0.1% on YoY and MoM basis previously.
Technical Analysis
As long as the quote stays above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 74.10, it can keep challenging the 200-day EMA level of 75.55 in search of meeting July month high surrounding 76.30. In a case prices dip below 74.10 on a daily closing basis, October-start top surrounding 73.40/35 should be on sellers’ radar.
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