In its latest Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR), the Bank of England (BoE) announced that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019 is now expected to grow 1.4%, slightly higher than the 1.3% announced in August’s QIR. On the other hand, the BoE lowered 2020 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.3%. Below are additional key takeaways, via Reuters.
“Inflation in one year’s time at 1.51% (Aug. forecast 1.90%), based on market interest rates.”
“Inflation in two years’ time at 2.03% (Aug. forecast 2.23%), based on market interest rates.”
“Inflation in three years’ time at 2.25% (Aug. forecast 2.37%), based on market interest rates.”
“Market rates imply more BoE loosening than in Aug, point to bank rate at 0.5% in 2022 (Aug 0.6%).”
“GDP growth of +0.4% QQ in Q3 2019 (Sept forecast +0.2% QQ), sees +0.2% QQ in Q4 2019.”
“Unemployment rate at 3.8% in two years’ time (Aug 3.7%), based on market rates.”
“Wage growth +3.5% YY in Q4 2019 (Aug +3%), +3.25% yy in Q4 2020 (Aug +3.25%), +3.75% yy in Q4 2021 (Aug +4%), +3.75% YY Q4 2022.”
“Overall slack in economy is 0.25% of GDP (Aug 0.25%), sees zero slack in 1 years’ time (Aug 0.25% slack), sees excess demand of 1.25% in 3 years’ time (Aug excess demand 1.75%).”
“UK GDP growth skewed to downside in 2nd and 3rd years of forecast horizon.”
“Almost all UK firms surveyed by BoE say they are “fully ready” or “as ready as they can be” for a no-deal Brexit vs 80% of firms in Sept.”
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