The YouGov’s official MRP poll has been released – This poll is regarded as the most reliable and has the capacity to really move GBP crosses – (The model accurately forecast the hung parliament in the 2017 General Election, even correctly projecting that seats such as Kensington & Chelsea and Canterbury would be won by the Labour Party).
Overnight, citing sources who have seen the YouGov MRP poll, the Guardian journalist Owen Jones reported that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives had a significant majority over the Labour Party.
“Labour’s national share has gone up by a few points in the last week,” Jones tweeted. “If that trend continued over the next week, it’d be a hung Parliament.”
GBP/USD bulls were all over the leak and cable subsequently rose into the 1.29 handle but a hung Parliament scenario was a thorn in the side for the bulls.
“For clarity – if the rate of Labour’s recovery over the last week was replicated over the coming week, then next week’s figures would show a hung parliament,” Jones further explained.
Results as follows
- Boris Johnson on track 359.
- Labour on track for 211.
- MRP model projects a Majority of 68.
FX implications
More to come
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