Next week, the US official employment report is due. According to analysts at Wells Fargo Non-Farm Payroll could improve after the economy added “just” 128K jobs in October. They forecast an increase of 190K in NFP.
Key Quotes:
“The job market in the United States remains quite strong, though more than 10 years into this expansion, it is starting to show its age. The U.S. added over 200K jobs each month in 2017 and 2018, on average. In 2019, that average monthly growth rate slowed to 167K. Layoffs have remained low, but an uptick in jobless claims in recent weeks raise a suspicious eyebrow. There have also been layoffs the past two months in the manufacturing sector. An optimist might point out difficulty finding skilled labor and how that may be holding back the pace of hiring. That is certainly true, but the 36K manufacturing jobs lost in October throw some cold water on that.”
“After adding just 128K jobs in October, some improvement is expected in November. A faster pace of job growth would offer some assurance to the Fed and the markets that the economy really is in “a good place” after all.”
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