The US economy is structurally less recession-prone and the main sources of previous downturns – oil shocks, inflationary overheating, and financial imbalances – do not seem too concerning for now, according to Goldman Sachs economists.
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We think the prospects for a soft landing in the next few years are better than widely thought and considerably better than the historical odds would suggest this deep into an expansion.
The probability of a downturn has recent fallen to about 1 in 3 following a tentative trade war truce with China, according to USA Today. Also, economists believe a recession, if any, would probably be relatively short and mild rather than the great collapse of 2007-09.
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