Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, senior economist at Standard Chartered, suggests that this year’s US electoral heatmap includes fewer noteworthy ballots than in previous years.
Key Quotes
“The November US election has important global implications and is the only one we place in our ‘high-stakes’ category. We define ‘high-stakes’ elections as those having an uncertain outcome, significant political (and in some cases geopolitical) implications, and the potential to move markets.”
“The global systemic role of the US, the weight of Trump’s personal decisions in foreign policy and trade, and the uncertainty of the outcome combine to make the US election the most important on our 2020 calendar by far.”
“Elsewhere, elections in Taiwan, Iran and Israel may have significant regional repercussions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, elections in Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon and Ethiopia will be important for emerging-market (EM) investors.”
“A few ballots, while not so important in themselves, might be watched as a gauge of support for leaders whose administrations are at a policy juncture (such as Brazil, France or Spain).”
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