Analysts at Westpac are concerned that the coronavirus is likely to have a bigger economic impact on New Zealand than SARS.
Key notes
- Our baseline scenario is that March quarter GDP will be 0.6% lower than previously thought.
- This assumes a two month ban on travel and one month of disruption in China’s factories.
- In this scenario there would be little lasting economic damage. Late-2020 would feature high quarterly GDP growth as the economy rebounds.
- China is now much more important to the New Zealand economy than in 2003.
- Quarantine efforts this time are much more draconian than they were during SARS.
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