US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index slumps to -4.19 in March

• Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index falls sharply in March.
• US Dollar Index clings to daily gains near 100 handle.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index in March fell to -4.19 in March from 0.06 (revised from 0.16) in February. The 3-month moving average of the index dropped to -1.47 from -0.2 in the same period.

In its press release, the Chicago Fed noted that a reading below -0.7 was associated with an increased likelihood of a recession.

“Eighteen of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 65 made negative contributions and two made neutral contributions,” the Chicago Fed added.

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index largely ignored this reading and was last up 0.3% on the day at 100.