The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday, October 6 at 03:30 GMT. The market consensus is for the RBA to stay on hold while reiterating its further easing option and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations forecast by the economists and researchers of seven major banks regarding the upcoming central bank’s decision. AUD/USD is trading in a relatively tight trading range below 0.7200 ahead of the meeting.
See – Reserve Bank of Australia Preview: Paving the way for more stimulus
Standard Chartered
“We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the policy cash rate unchanged at 0.25% at its October meeting. Market expectations have swayed following Deputy Governor Debelle’s mid-September speech, before settling at our forecast of a November rate cut. We believe the RBA will cut the policy rate to 0.10% in November, while also adjusting the rate of its term funding facility and the target yield on three-year government bonds to 0.10%. It is also likely to reduce the interest rate paid on exchange settlement balances to between 2-5bps. Pausing in October will provide the RBA with crucial information on the labour market recovery under the revised JobKeeper and JobSeeker programmes, as well as the recovery in Victoria as the state is likely opened up (albeit slowly) in October.”
ING
“We do not expect a rate cut, although a shift to a more dovish rhetoric may be on the cards. The futures market seems to be pricing in around a 68% chance of a cut at this meeting, so we think the balance of risks for AUD is slightly tilted to the upside next week.”
Deutsche Bank
“Our Australia economists expect no change in policy, but we will be watching for clues about whether a rate cut might yet be delivered by the end of the year.”
TDS
“We expect the RBA to keep the cash rate/YCC target at 0.25% but for the Bank to highlight it continues to assess the merits of further monetary measures. The reason the RBA is likely to keep policy unchanged at this meeting is to assess the Federal and state budgets over the coming month before potentially announcing further easing at the Nov meeting.”
Citibank
“Calls have increased for the Bank to cut the policy rates in October. However, for Citi analysts to switch to the rate cutting camp, it would require a dovish addition that suggests further rate cuts are imminent.”
Societé Generale
“The market thinks there’s a good chance of a rate cut, a view which we don’t share, but no move today may just see expectations pushed forward a month. For us, it’s Australia’s fiscal room for manoeuvre that makes the difference & makes us like the currency. It’s much easier to be aggressive with fiscal policy from a low debt/GDP starting point, than to argue that debt levels just don’t matter.”
DBS Bank
“The RBA is not expected to cut rates but is likely to complement the budget initiatives with adjustment to its Term Funding Facility. Interest rate futures are still looking for the cash rate target to move lower to 0.10% from its present 0.25%.”
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