Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 4:
The US dollar has surged in a tighter-than-expected and ongoing US election night. Movements remain choppy, especially around gold, while the S&P 500 looks positive.
President Donald Trump is outperforming the polls, on the cusp of winning Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia at the time of writing. The battle is narrower than expected focuses on the slow-counting Midwest races – Michigan, Wisconsin, and especially Pennsylvania,. Challenger Joe Biden has surprised only in Arizona. There is even a theoretical chance of an electoral college tie.
EUR/USD has tumbled from above 1.1750 to around 1.16 before stabilizing. GBP/USD has dipped below 1.30 and continues battling that level. Gold lost the recently recaptured $1,900 level and continues trading around that level. S&P 500 futures pared gains as Trump advanced, then bounced on Biden’s Arizona lead.
In several counties and states, counting is being paused for the night, further increasing the chances of a protracted election process. Wisconsin may report results on Wednesday, Pennsylvania on Thursday, and Michigan only on Friday.
Republicans have higher chances of retaining control of the Senate. The networks called the House for Democrats as expected.
See 2020 Elections: Race to go down to the wire as Trump outperforms in the South, markets pressured
Markets are focused on the elections, yet there are other events going on.
The EU and the UK have agreed to extend Brexit talks after reporting progress. The UK House of Commons is set to approve the nationwide lockdown that Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced over the weekend.
Coronavirus cases continue rising in Europe, yet no new shuttering announcements are due out, allowing the euro some breathing space.
US data: ADP’s private-sector jobs report for October is set to show another large increase in employment. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is forecast to remain above 57, reflecting strong growth. Both indicators serve as clues toward Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.
Bitcoin jumped over $14,000 early in the election night but slipped below that level.
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