Canada is projected to report an increase of 100,000 positions in October, with the jobless rate slipping from 9% to 8.8%. The employment data is due out at 13:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecast of the economists and researchers of four major banks.
USD/CAD is staging a modest bounce on Friday but stays below the 1.3100 mark.
RBC Economics
“We expect the pace of job growth in Canada slowed to 50K in October after a stronger-than-expected 378K increase in September. Virus containment measures were reintroduced in Ontario, Quebec and other regions, and although much less stringent than in the spring, they likely resulted in another round of layoffs in hard-hit industries like accommodation and food services. Conversely, we expect jobs in the retail and construction industries, where employment is still well-below pre-shock levels, continued to gradually recover. We expect the unemployment rate dipped to 8.9% in October.”
NBF
“We are calling for a -15K print. Despite the decline in jobs, the unemployment rate could have stayed unchanged at 9.0%, assuming the participation rate edged down to 64.9%.”
CIBC
“The labour market likely continued to recover early in October, only to falter under the weight of rising COVID cases and renewed restrictions thereafter. The report will likely have captured even more parents who were able to resume work after sending kids back to school in September. However, as the weather cooled and a second wave of the virus became more apparent, hospitality and a number of other service-driven industries likely began to shed employees again. That trend looks to have begun towards the end of September in Quebec as restrictions on a number of services were reimposed, but picked up steam as other provinces followed suit, such as Ontario retightening rules on bars, restaurants and gyms just prior to the survey’s reference week. The net result is probably that October saw very little in terms of changes to the level of employment.”
TDS
“TD looks for the labour market recovery to slow to a near-halt with just 25K jobs created in October, down from 378K the prior month, with material risk of a negative print. Although we expect most industries to continue rehiring workers, the public health backdrop has changed quickly from September and we expect a heavy toll on those industries affected by new covid measures. A modest increase in total employment should leave the unemployment rate at 8.9%, 3.3pp above pre-covid levels.”
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