- USD/TRY moves higher to the 7.75 level on Monday.
- The 7.60 level emerges as a strong support so far.
- All the attention is on the CBRT meeting on November 19.
The Turkish lira gives away part of its recent strong gains and pushes USD/TRY back to the 7.70/75 band at the beginning of the week.
USD/TRY focused on the CBRT, politics
After three consecutive daily pullbacks, USD/TRY manages to gather some upside traction and bounces off recent 2-month lows around 7.60 (November 13). In fact, investors appear to be cashing out some gains after the lira’s 10% rally recorded during last week.
In fact, the lira reversed sharply the recent weakness and sparked a strong rally following the reshuffle in the Turkish economic team after President Erdogan replaced the CBRT Governor and finmin B.Albayrak stepped down.
Also supporting the upside momentum around TRY, President Erdogan announced a new economic growth strategy on the back of international investment and financial stability.
In addition, market consensus expects the Turkish central bank to hike the One-Week Repo Rate by at least 500 bps at its meeting on November 19 (currently at 10.25%).
USD/TRY key levels
At the moment the pair is up 1.47% at 7.7520 and faces the next hurdle at 7.8174 (55-day SMA) followed by 8.5777 (all-time high Nov.6). On the downside, a drop below 7.5985 (monthly low Nov.16) would expose 7.4741 (100-day SMA) and then 72019 (low Aug21).
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