Strategist at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview of this week’s key event/macro data from the US – the latest FOMC monetary policy update on Wednesday and the Advance Q2 GDP report on Thursday.
Key quotes:
“Changes to the FOMC statement are likely to be fairly minor at this week’s meeting, consistent with no plans for policy changes anytime soon. The chairman will likely remain dovish on policy in his press conference even as he expresses some optimism about growth in the year ahead. Inflation will be key to tapering as well as tightening, and most officials appear to be skeptical that a few strong quarters for growth will suddenly lead to a sustained pickup in the trend. We agree.”
“Real GDP appears to have slowed in Q4, potentially to the point of contraction in December, but it was likely up moderately at least in Q4 as a whole. Core PCE inflation likely remained low at 1.4% y/y, even with a relatively strong rise in December. The Conference Board confidence index and durable goods orders likely fell; new home sales likely rose.”
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