EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Weekly W-formaiton is a compelling bearish play

• EUR/JPY bears on the lookout for a downside opportunity below current support.,
• The daily W-formation is invalidated by recent bullish continuation, but weekly’s is not. 

Further to the prior analysis, EUR/JPY perking up again, looking to 128.00 resistance, the price has rallied too far for the prospects of a full retracement back to the daily W-formation’s neckline. 

Instead, however, a correction to at least a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would be expected, if not to a 50% mean reversion which currently aligns with a prior resistance and a pivot level as well as te weekly W-formation’s neckline. 

The following illustrates such bearish prospects in a top-down analysis. 

Prior analysis

128.12 was a line in the sand as a -61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior bearish leg of the W-formation, and considering the bullish extension to fresh highs of 128.45, its is an impulse too far.

Monthly chart

There is room for more upside according to a confluence of a -61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior correction vs the current bullish impulse. 

The price has broken resistance and would be expected to continue higher. 

Weekly chart

While the daily W-formation is far too overextended, the weekly is not. 

A 50% mean reversion to structure could be on the cards. 

This would need to be managed on the 4-hour time frame as follows:

Bears will be prudent to wait for the support structure to be tested, broken and retested where it would be expected to act as resistance. 

There is a patch of liquidity on the way as eclipsed on the above chart as the only opposing candle in the rising sea of green. 

Other than that, it is a clear path towards the target from there onwards.