- US FOMC meeting minutes will remain in highlight to determine further trends in the EUR/USD.
- EUR/USD has soared above the 1.1708 level, and now it’s likely to complete the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
- Forex trading market participants may look to sell trades below the $ 1.17000 level today.
The EUR/USD closed at $1.1708 after placing a high of $1.1786 and a low of $1.1708. The EUR/USD pair extended its loss for the second consecutive session on Tuesday amid the renewed strength of the US dollar, driven by its increased demand as a safe-haven currency despite the poorer than expected retail sales data from July. US FOMC meeting minutes will remain in highlight to determine further trends in the EUR/USD.
If you are interested in trading EUR/USD with forex robots, check out our guide.
The Stronger Dollar Kept EUR/USD Under Pressure, But Not Anymore.
The day before, the US Dollar Index (DXY) surged and regained its strength to reach the 93.17 level amid recent positive developments. The US Treasury Yields on a 10-year note also surged on Tuesday after declining for three consecutive sessions and reaching 1.28%. That also supported the greenback and weighed on riskier assets like EUR/USD.
The market mood came under pressure after political uncertainties surged due to the sudden collapse of the Afghan government. The former US President Joe Biden blamed this situation on the former US President Donald Trump. These geopolitical uncertainties raised safe-haven appeal in the market that supported the greenback and, hence, the riskier asset EUR/USD came under pressure.
Spread of the Delta variant triggered the economic slowdown.
The US dollar also gathered strength based on its safe-haven status as the rising coronavirus cases raised concerns over the economic recovery. The spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus has surged in many parts of the world and caused fading hopes for economic recovery. That also added to the greenback’s strength, making EUR/USD less valuable.
On the data front, at 14:00 GMT, the Flash Employment Change for the quarter for the whole bloc surged to 0.5% against the forecasted 0.2% and supported the Euro. That capped further losses in EUR/USD. The Flash GDP for the quarter remained unchanged with forecasts of 2.0%.
From the US side, at 01:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases from June remained flat with the estimations of 110.9B. At 17:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales declined in July by 0.4% against the projected 0.2% and weighed on the US dollar. In July, retail sales also dropped and reached-1.1% against the forecasted-0.2% and helped reduce the loss in EUR/USD.
At 18:15 GMT, industrial production increased in July by 0.9% against the anticipated 0.5%. Moreover, the Capacity Utilization Rate also advanced to 76.1% against the expected 75.7%.
At 19:00 GMT, the Business Inventories from June remained flat with expectations of 0.8%. The NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 75 in August from an estimated 80, causing further downside pressure on EUR/USD.
Jerome Powell Comments on Covid Concern
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that it was unclear whether the spread of the coronavirus would significantly impact the economic recovery. He further warned that the coronavirus was not going anywhere soon and that people had adapted to living with it. He also stated that the pace of vaccination has slowed down despite the rising number of vaccinated people.
Investors are looking forward to the release of the July meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve to get hints about the tapering of economic support from the central bank, which is scheduled to be released on Wednesday.
EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1682 1.1760
1.1656 1.1812
1.1605 1.1838
Pivot Point: 1.1734
EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Analysis: Double Bottom at 1.1700
The EUR/USD price forecast remains slightly bullish ahead of the US FOMC meeting minutes. In the 4-hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has gained support at the 1.1708 level. A double bottom pattern extends that support level and the breakout below can extend selling until 1.1675 support.
On the bullish side, the next resistance prevails at the 1.1744 level. At the same time, a continuation of an uptrend could extend its price towards 1.1765 and 1.1780 resistance levels. The direct currency pair EUR/USD has soared above the 1.1708 level, and now it’s likely to complete the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
The 50 day EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Red Line) holds at 1.1742 while the oscillator indicator Stochastic RSI has entered the oversold zone. Thus, failure to break below 1.1708 can trigger profit-taking among investors.
Therefore, Forex trading market participants may look for sell trades below the $ 1.17000 level today. The initial targets are likely to be $ 1.1675 and $ 1.1625 levels. Alternatively, buy trades can be taken above the $ 1.1708 level to target $ 1.1745 and 1.1765. All the best!
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