AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie Gains Ground Amid RBA’s Cautious Policy

• The AUD/USD forecast shows an uptrend as a strengthened AUD moves against a weaker US dollar amid tight RBA policy and US shutdown optimism.

• The US Senate advances a government funding bill to end the Federal government shutdown. 

• Traders await commentary from FOMC members Musalem and Daly for further policy cues. 

The AUD/USD forecast suggests a mild bullish momentum as the pair trades above 0.6500 on Monday amid the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish policy stance. RBA’s Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser remarked that demand in Australia is above potential, making the tightest recovery since the 1980s. He also mentioned little urgency for more easing, further boosting the Aussie. 

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Meanwhile, China temporarily lifted the ban on exporting dual-use items and permitted exports of gallium and germaninum to the US, easing the headwinds between Washington and Beijing, pushing Aussie further up. Additionally, Australia’s trade surplus expanded to AUD 3.94 billion in September. The exports bounce by 7.9% MoM, adding to Aussie’s demand. 

In the US, the dollar remains steady as policymakers are worried about the ongoing Federal government shutdown and its negative impacts on the US economy. The Senate advanced a government funding bill to end the prolonged shutdown, improving investor confidence in the greenback. However, the softer US consumer sentiment and increasing job cuts cap the dollar’s upside. 

AUD/USD Daily Key Events

The major events in the day include:

• FOMC Member Musalem Speaks
• FOMC Member Daly Speaks

On Monday, traders await speeches from FOMC members Musalem and Daly for insights into further policy direction and rate outlook. 

AUD/USD Technical Forecast: Consolidating Above 0.6500

The AUD/USD daily chart shows a mild uptrend, with the pair trading above 0.6500 after rebounding from its earlier 0.6450 zone. The price remains below the 50-day MA near 0.6540 and the 100-day MA around 0.6560, acting as near-term resistance. 

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The RSI is at 50, indicating a neutral momentum. If the pair breaks above 0.6500, it could open room for further gains near the 0.6600 and 0.6650 levels. Conversely, if it fails to hold above 0.6500, it could trigger a fresh downside towards 0.6480 and 0.6450, in line with the 200-day MA, which acts as a key dynamic support. 

Support Levels

• 0.6480
• 0.6450
• 0.6410

Resistance Levels

• 0.6540
• 0.6560
• 0.6600

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