AUD/USD Outlook: Aussie Struggles to Extend Gains Amid Shutdown Deal

• The AUD/USD outlook reflects a mild bullish bias amid a subdued Aussie and a firm US dollar.

• Deputy Governor Hauser noted the challenges and suggested tighter conditions to control inflation. 

• Traders anticipate RBA Jones’ speech and FOMC officials’ speeches tomorrow for further impetus. 

The AUD/USD outlook reflects a mild bullish momentum, trading around 0.6520 after its previous gains amid US shutdown optimism. The shutdown could potentially reopen by the end of this week, enabling the release of major economic data such as the Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI.

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This optimism calmed the uncertainty mildly and eased the safe-haven demand for US dollar.  Meanwhile, investors remain cautious ahead of Fed commentary tomorrow. Markets are pricing in a 63% probability of a December Fed cut, supported by softer economic and employment data.

On the other hand, the Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index revealed a 12.8% rise in November. It stands at 103.8 and crossed the 100 mark for the first time since 2022. The National Australian Bank Business Conditions also climbed to 9.0 in October from 8.0 in September, backed by stronger sales and profitability. 

Additionally, investors expect the RBA to hold a steady policy. Markets price in a 60% probability of easing in 2026. Meanwhile, Deputy Governor Hauser noted the challenges and cautiousness while stating that there is a need to maintain a tighter policy to mitigate inflation challenges. 

AUD/USD Daily Key Events

On Tuesday, the US bank holiday is being observed, resulting in thin trading activity in the markets. Traders await RBA Governor Jones’ speech and speeches from FOMC officials on Wednesday for further policy cues. 

AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Holds Range-bound within Key MAs

The AUD/USD 4-hour chart shows a mild bullish bias, as the pair trades around 0.6520 after a rebound from its previous lows. The price remains above the 20- and 50-period MAs, hinting at modest recovery. Meanwhile, the pair struggles to remain above the 200-period MA near 0.6540, signaling a limited upside trend.

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The RSI is at 53, indicating a neutral momentum. In the short term, a range-bound movement is expected. If bulls manage to break above 0.6545, they could extend the uptrend towards 0.6580. Conversely, if they fail to sustain above 0.6500, they might trigger fresh selling pressure. 

Support Levels

• 0.6500
• 0.6470
• 0.6435

Resistance Levels

• 0.6545
• 0.6580
• 0.6615

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