Gold Forecast: Weakening Bulls Keep Bullion Below $4,100 Ahead of NFP

• The gold forecast reveals a neutral to bearish bias, as the dollar holds firm following the release of the FOMC minutes.

• A modest increase in risk appetite caps the market. 

• Market participants await the long-overdue US NP data as a key signal to the Fed.  

Gold forecast remains subdued in Thursday’s European session after failing to sustain above the $4,100 mark. The markets are now bracing for the September US NFP data due later today. 

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Earlier in the day, gold reached $4,097 but soon found selling traction, leading to the weekly lows under $4,050. 

On the other hand, the US dollar climbed to its highest level since May, supported by reduced expectations of a December Fed rate cut following the release of the October 28-29 meeting minutes. The FOMC meeting revealed a divided decision among policymakers, with some favoring a lower target range for the Fed cut and others opposed to it. Policymakers cautioned that further easing could risk entrenched inflation. 

This greenback’s strength weighed on the yellow metal, prompting a retracement from the $4,120 zone. However, the upbeat tech sector earnings increased the risk appetite, capping the greenback’s further upside—meanwhile, the geopolitical situation, such as the Russia-Ukraine peace framework, limited gold’s bullish trend. 

Gold Daily Key Events

The significant events in the day include:

• Average Hourly Earnings m/m
• Non-farm Unemployment Change
• Unemployment Rate
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• Unemployment Claims
• Existing Home Sales

The US NFP report is expected to reveal a rise of 50,000 jobs, with a steady employment rate at 4.3% and wage growth at 3.7%. A softer data release could reignite bets on a Fed cut and boost gold, while stronger data could strengthen the dollar and weaken the metal. 

Gold Technical Forecast: Oscillating Around MA Cluster

Gold’s 4-hour chart shows a tight consolidation, as it trades near $4,044 after repeated failed attempts to climb above $4,100. The price remains near the key 50-period MA, around $4,050, forming an immediate dynamic resistance zone. Meanwhile, the key 200-period MA near $4,112 acts as a support zone. 

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The RSI at mid-40s signals weakening bullish bias. A close above the $4,112 level could extend the upside further. In contrast, a break below $4,050 could trigger a downside towards $4,000 and $3,900.  

Support Levels

• $4,050
• $4,020
• $3,985

Resistance Levels

• $4,112
• $4,130
• $4,165

 

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