The Swiss Industrial Index measures change in production in the manufacturing, utilities and mining sectors. A reading that is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Swiss franc.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/CHF.
Published on Tuesday at 8:15 GMT.
Indicator Background
Swiss Industrial Production, released quarterly, is an important leading economic indicator. It provides analysts and traders with a snapshot of the health of the Swiss economy. The indicator tends to be volatile, and often the market forecasts are well off the mark.
The indicator disappointed the markets in February, recording a 1.7% drop. The markets had predicted a smaller decrease of 0.7%. The forecast for March calls for a 0.4% increase. Will the indicator climb into positive territory this month?
Sentiments and levels
The US economy continues to do well, while the economic data coming out of Switzerland has been mostly weak. Since early March, USD/CHF has been moving upwards, and this could well continue after the speech by the head of the Fed. So, the overall sentiment is bullish on USD/CHF towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.9306, 0.9250, 0.9204, 0.9120, 0.9050, 0.8924.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 0.1% to 0.7%: In such a case, the franc is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 0.8% to 1.1%: An unexpected higher reading can send USD/CHF below one support line.
- Well above expectations: Above 1.1%: The chances of such a scenario are very low. The pair could break two or more support levels on such an outcome.
- Below expectations: -0.3% to 0.0%: A reading at the zero level or in negative territory could push USD/CHF above one resistance line.
- Well below expectations: Below -0.3%: In this scenario, the pair could break two or more resistance lines.
For more on the Swiss franc, see the USD to CHF forecast.
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