AUD/USD: Trading the Australian jobs Jun 2013

Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, is an important leading indicator which often has a significant impact on the markets. Employment figures are important as they provide a snapshot of the health of the economy. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.

Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Employment Change should be treated as a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.

Employment Change was outstanding in the May reading, posting a gain of 50.1 thousand, easily surpassing the estimate of 11.5 thousand. However, the markets are braced for a weak release in June, with an estimate  of  -9.8 thousand.  Will the key employment  indicator repeat with a strong showing?

Sentiment and Levels

The Aussie’s troubles show no sign of letting up, as the currency  continues to lose ground to the  US dollar.   AUD/USD  lost a remarkable eight  cents in May, and the southward journey continues in June. Recent Australian data, such as Retail Sales and GDP,  have not been strong, and weaker Chinese data is weighing on the Aussie.So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.9797, 0.9634, 0.9549, 0.9405,  0.9275 and 0.9171.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: -13K to -7.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight  fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
2. Above expectations: -6.9K to -4.0K: A  smaller decline than expected  could push the pair above one resistance level.
3. Well above expectations: Above -4.0K:  A  much better  release  than forecast  could propel AUD/USD upwards, and two or more resistance lines could be broken.
4. Below expectations: -16.0K to -13.1K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
5. Well below expectations: Below -16.0K: A very poor reading will hurt confidence in the Aussie and AUD/USD could break two or more support levels.

For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.

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