GBP/USD Outlook Oct. 21-25

The pound enjoyed a super week,  gaining around two cents against the US dollar. GBP/USD  closed  the week at 1.6163.  This week’s highlight is Preliminary GDP.  Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

The pound took  full advantage as  optimism faded following the debt deal in Washington, as the agreement hammered out in Congress is only for several months. This resulted in broad weakness by the dollar against the major currencies. The pound also got a boost from an outstanding Claimant Count Change.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:    

1. Rightmove HPI: Sunday, 23:01. This housing inflation indicator has posted two straight declines, indicating slower activity in the UK housing sector.
2. BOE Deputy Governor Charles Bean Speaks: Tuesday, 8:00. Bean will address an economics forum in Andover. Analysts will be looking for hints as to the BOE’s future monetary policy.
3. Public Sector Net Borrowing:  Tuesday, 8:30. Last month, the indicator posted its largest deficit since March, with a reading of 11.5 billion pounds. This still beat the estimate of 11.9 billion. The markets are expecting a smaller deficit for September, with an estimate of 10.4 billion pounds.
4. MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes:  Wednesday, 8:30. This release contains the breakdown of the vote on asset purchase facility. Recent votes were unanimously (9-0) in favor of maintaining the asset purchase program at 375 billion pounds, and this is the expected breakdown for the upcoming release.
5. MPC Official Bank Rate Votes:  Wednesday, 8:30. The voting breakdown to maintain the Official Bank Rate at 0.50% has been unanimous since August 2011. No change is expected in the breakdown of the previous interest rate decision.
6. BBA Mortgage Approvals:  Wednesday, 8:30. Mortgage Approvals was up slightly in August, coming in at 38.6 thousand. This was close to the estimate of 38.2 thousand. The markets are expecting the upward trend to continue, with an estimate of 39.4 thousand. If the indicator can meet or beat this estimate, it would be a multi-year high.
7. CBI Industrial Order Expectations:  Thursday, 10:00. The indicator has been moving higher since March, when it was deep in negative territory. The previous release came in at 9 points, and the markets are expecting the indicator to improve to 10 points in September.
8. BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks:  Thursday, 16:45. Carney will address an event in London. Analysts will be listening carefully for clues as to the BOE’s future monetary policy, especially in light of recent economic data which indicates that the UK economy is picking up steam.
9. Preliminary GDP:  Friday, 8:30. This event, released each quarter,  is the highlight of the week and could have a major impact on the movement of GBP/USD. The Preliminary release is the earliest release, and tends to have the most impact. The Q2 release posted a respectable gain of 0.6%, and the estimate for Q3 stands at 0.8%.

Live chart of GBP/USD:     [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5966. The pair dropped to a low of 1.5894, but then reversed direction and pushed  past the  1.62 line,  touching a high of 1.6225, as resistance at 1.6247 (discussed last week) held firm. The pair closed the week at 1.6163.

Technical lines from top to bottom

With the pound posting sharp gains, we start from  higher ground:

We start with resistance at the round number of 1.6600. This key line has been tested only once since May 2011.

Next  is resistance at 1.6475, which has held firm since August 2011.

This is followed by 1.6343. This line was last breached when the pound dropped sharply in August 2011.

We next encounter resistance at 1.6247. This was a key resistance line in October and November 2012 and held firm as the pound soared last week.

1.6125  was breached early in the week, but remains in place as a  support level. It is a weak line and could see action early in the week.

1.60, a key psychological barrier continues to provide support. It has some breathing room as the pair trades at higher levels. 1.5936 is the next support level.

1.5832 continues to provide the pair with strong support. 1.5752 was breached in  mid-September by the surging pound but has provided strong support since then.

1.5648 was an important resistance line since June, but  has been providing support role since early September.

1.5550 is the final support level for now. This line last saw action in mid-June.

I  am  neutral on GBP/USD.

The pound  had its best week in over a month and finds itself above the 1.61 line. Will the rally continue? With the crisis in Washington over for now, the markets will be paying close attention to economic releases.  The dollar’s fortune this week  could depend to a great extent on  Non-Farm Payrolls, which has not been released since before the US shutdown. As well, British GDP could have a major impact on GBP/USD.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.