Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.
Employment Change posted a huge gain of 58.6 thousand in the October release, crushing the estimate of 14.8 thousand. The markets are bracing for a sharp downturn in November, with an estimate of -10.0 thousand. Will the indicator again surprise the markets and beat the forecast?
Sentiment and Levels
The markets are expecting weak Australian job numbers, which could weigh on the Aussie. At the same time, a rate hike by the Federal Reserve has been priced in, so we could see some consolidation from the greenback. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.7553, 0.7440, 0.7284, 0.7160, 0.71 and 0.70.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: -13.0K to -7.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: -6.9K to -4.0K: A stronger reading than expected could push the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Above -4.0K: A small decline could propel AUD/USD upwards, and two or more resistance lines could be broken.
- Below expectations: -17.0K to -13.1K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Below -17.0K: A very poor reading will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy and AUD/USD could break two or more support levels.
For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.
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