US Final GDP is a key release and is published each quarter. GDP reports measure production and growth of the economy, and are considered by analysts as one the most important indicators of economic activity. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.
Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Final GDP is the final of three GDP versions. Traders should pay close attention to the GDP release, as an unexpected reading could quickly affect the direction of EUR/USD.
US Preliminary GDP posted a strong gain of 2.1% for Q3, ahead of the estimate of 2.0%. Final GDP for Q3 is slightly lower, with the estimate standing at 1.9%.
Sentiments and levels
The historic Federal Reserve interest rate hike has sharpened monetary divergence with the ECB, especially with the easing steps the ECB took at its last meeting. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.10, 1.0925, 1.0880, 1.08, 1.0710 and 1.0630.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 1.6% to 2.2%: In such a scenario, EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 2.3% to 2.7%: An unexpected higher reading can push the pair below one support line.
- Well above expectations: Above 2.7%: A strong reading would likely boost the dollar, and the pair could break below a second support line as a result.
- Below expectations: 1.1% to 1.5%: In this scenario, EUR/USD could push above one resistance level.
- Well below expectations: Below 1.1%. A weak gain could result in the pair pushing above a second resistance line.
For more on the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.
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