A mixed jobs report for November: 178K jobs gained within expectations, but wages fall 0.1%, worse than expected, y/y falls to 2.5%. The unemployment rate surprised with a drop to 4.6%, but the participation rate dropped as well. U-6 is at 9.3%, lowest since 2008.
The US dollar reacted negatively to the drop in wages, but as the dust settles, the greenback did manage to claw back and even eye a gain.
The US was expected to report a gain of around 175K jobs in November 2016 with +0.2% in wages. A rate hike on December 14th is all but priced in.
The US dollar was gaining a bit of ground ahead of the release, correcting the correction if you wish.
November NFP Data (updated)
- Non-Farm Payrolls: 178K (exp. +175K, last 161K before revisions)
- Average Hourly Earnings -0.1% m/m, 2.5% y/y (exp. +0.2% m/m, last month +0.4% m/m, 2.8% y/y, best since 2009)
- Revisions: October revised to 142K, but September revised up, total: -2K, not much changed (+44K last time).
- Participation Rate: 62.7% (62.8% last month )
- Unemployment Rate: 4.6%, lowest since 2007 (exp.4.9%, last month 5% before revisions)
- Private Sector: 156K (ADP showed 216K).
- Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 9.3%, lowest since 2008 (previous: 9.5%).
- Employment to population ratio: 59.7% (previous: 59.7%)
- Average workweek: 34.4 (last month: 34.4).
NFP Currency Reaction
- EUR/USD traded around 1.0640, within recent ranges and ahead of Italy’s referendum. It rises above 1.0670 but retreats.
- GBP/USD traded around 1.2625, enjoying hopes for a “soft-Brexit”. Cable rises to 1.2640.
- USD/JPY traded just under 114, off the highs after yet another rally. The pair wobbles but stabilizes.
- USD/CAD was around 1.33, with the loonie continuing to ride the OPEC accord. Canada also releases its own jobs report, which is excellent. Dollar/CAD slides to 1.3280.
- AUD/USD was around 0.7425, enjoying rises in commodity prices. No big changes are seen.
- NZD/USD was at 0.71, also off the lows.
The preview: trading the NFP with EUR/USD
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