RBA minutes overview
The minutes from the RBA Board’s May meeting are due at 11:30amSyd/9:30am Sing/HK, after the RBA, as widely expected, left the official cash rate at 1.50% at its latest meeting, unchanged yet again.
“Since we have already seen the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, there shouldn’t be anything very new but the headlines will still be watched. Recall that the SoMP produced unchanged GDP forecasts – a bullish 3.25% in both 2018 and 2019 – plus higher near term inflation,” analysts at Westpac exlained.
How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?
Technically, the chart is bearish with the long lower wick on the monthly candle and with the pair consolidating recent gains. Recovery attempts back to the prior support line are yet to convince and fully penetrate through it with the threat of offers below the decending 21-D SMA a concern for sheepish bulls. However, zooming in, the shorter term picture is more promising but the RSI’s are down from bullish levels and nuetralising the outlook. Beyond 0.7600, on the wide, a break higher and through the rising 200-D SMA on the 0.78 handle, 0.7910 will be in focus. To the downside, the 10-D SMA was recently pertrated and comes as first target aheda of 0.7420.
Key notes:
RBA’s Debelle: The Outlook For The Australian Economy speech’s headlines
AUD/USD: China data could be a lifeline for the 0.75 level as RBA remains dovish
About the RBA minutes
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.
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