When is the Australian Trade Banace, and how will it affect the AUD/USD?

Aussie Trade Balance overview

Early Thursday sees the Australian Trade Balance figures at 01:30 GMT, which is expected to shift from the previous reading of $-1.527 billion (in AUD terms) to a flat $-1 billion. The Aussie has been trading into recent highs on the back of positive GDP numbers for the Australian economy, and a forecast beat on the Trade Balance could see emboldened buyers step up for more, while a miss could undermine the recent upswing in the Aussie and send bidders scurrying.

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

With buyers hitting their stride recently, long positions won’t be too enthusiastic about a return to sluggish economic figures, and a miss for the headline figure could see the pair run out of gas on its current  technical correction.

As FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik noted on the AUD/USD’s technical outlook heading into the Trade Balance, “the AUD/USD pair broke above the 61.8% retracement of its latest decline ay 0.7660, holding nearby and biased higher, as the pair is developing above all of its moving averages in the 4 hours chart, with the 20 SMA heading sharply higher above the larger ones. The Momentum indicator in the mentioned chart has eased toward its mid-line, as the pair failed to break above its daily high, but the RSI indicator holds near overbought readings, which alongside with moving averages support additional gains ahead.”

Support levels: 0.7660 0.7620 0.7590

Resistance levels: 0.7660 0.7700 0.7740

Key notes

AUD and EUR Outperform

AUDUSD Analysis: Reaches six-week high

About the Aussie Trade Balance

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.